Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.